Iran’s Ballistic Arsenal: US Military Bases in Gulf Region Face Growing Threat

The Strategic Standoff

As tensions escalate between Washington and Tehran in February 2026, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has issued a stark warning: US military installations across the Gulf region are within striking distance of Iran’s formidable ballistic missile arsenal. With an estimated 2,000 midrange ballistic missiles at its disposal, Iran has positioned itself to respond powerfully to any American aggression, declaring its forces are “ready with their fingers on the trigger”.

The threat comes amid President Donald Trump’s announcement of a “massive armada” moving toward Iran, prompting Iranian officials to clarify their strategic approach: while American soil remains beyond reach, US bases stationed in neighboring countries are prime targets. Importantly, Tehran has emphasized it would not attack the host nations themselves, drawing a clear distinction between targeting US military infrastructure and engaging regional allies.

Iran’s Missile Capabilities: A Detailed Breakdown

The Khorramshahr: Iran’s Heavy Hitter

The Khorramshahr represents Iran’s most advanced liquid-fuelled ballistic missile system, featuring an “ultra-heavy” warhead capable of striking targets up to 2,000 kilometers away. This extensive range encompasses all of Israel, numerous US military facilities throughout the Middle East, and portions of southeastern Europe. The missile can reach critical American installations including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, US Naval Support Activity in Bahrain, and multiple facilities in Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.​

The Sejjil: Solid-Fuel Strategic Weapon

Matching the Khorramshahr’s 2,000-kilometer range, the Sejjil medium-range ballistic missile provides Iran with a reliable strike capability across the entire Middle Eastern theater. Its targeting envelope includes Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, US Naval Support Activity in Bahrain, Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, and significant American assets in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey.​

The Emad and Ghadr-1: Advanced Medium-Range Systems

These sophisticated ballistic missiles can reach targets up to 1,700 kilometers away, covering a substantial portion of US military infrastructure in the region. Within their strike radius are Al Udeid Air Base, US Naval Support Activity in Bahrain, multiple Kuwaiti facilities including Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Air Base, Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, Al Dhafra Air Base in UAE, Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, and installations in Jordan and Syria.​

The Fattah-1, Haj Qasem, and Kheibar Shekan

Developed primarily by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), this trio of ballistic missiles has an operational range of 1,400 kilometers. These weapons can effectively target Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem and Ahmed Al Jaber Air Bases in Kuwait, US Naval Support Activity in Bahrain, Al Dhafra Air Base in UAE, and bases across Jordan and Syria.​

The Dezful: Short-to-Medium Range Capability

With a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers, the Dezful medium-range ballistic missile completes Iran’s layered missile defense strategy. Its targets include Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ain al-Assad Air Base in Iraq, Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, US Naval Support Activity in Bahrain, Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, and eastern Saudi Arabian locations such as Prince Sultan Air Base.​

Strategic Vulnerability of US Bases

The majority of American military installations in the Gulf region fall within the range of at least one type of Iranian ballistic missile, creating a significant strategic challenge for US military planners. Between 40,000 and 50,000 US troops are currently stationed across at least nineteen installations spanning from Egypt’s Mediterranean coast to Oman’s Arabian Sea shoreline. Eight of these are classified as permanent bases located in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar stands as the largest US installation in the Middle East, housing approximately 10,000 troops and serving as the forward headquarters for US Central Command. This concentration of military assets and command infrastructure makes it a particularly high-value target in any potential conflict scenario.

Iran’s Missile Strategy: Backbone of Deterrence

According to defense analysts, Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal now constitutes the core of Tehran’s deterrence strategy in the absence of a meaningful air force, advanced air defenses, and with diminished allied support. Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, describes these missiles as “like a Swiss Army knife for the regime – for coercion, defence and punishment all at once”.​

Last year, Iran demonstrated its willingness to deploy this arsenal when it unleashed approximately 500 missiles targeting Israel, though they caused minimal damage. Despite this limited effectiveness, US military officials are taking Iran’s missile threat seriously given the concentration of American forces in the region.

The Current Crisis Context

The military escalation follows Iran’s violent crackdown on anti-government protests that erupted in late December 2025, triggered by widespread economic grievances. Iranian authorities acknowledged that 3,117 people died in the demonstrations, publishing a list of 2,986 names, predominantly security force members and bystanders. However, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has verified 6,961 deaths, mostly protesters, with another 11,630 cases still under investigation.

The US military buildup began in late January 2026 when the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployed to the region, accompanied by additional air, naval, and missile defense forces. US officials characterized this deployment as intended to deter regional instability connected to the Iranian protests and killings, while signaling readiness for contingency operations. Iranian officials have described the American military presence as provocative, with Foreign Minister Araghchi stating that the deployment “does not scare us”.

Diplomatic Efforts Amid Military Posturing

Despite the inflammatory rhetoric and military movements, diplomatic channels remain active between Washington and Tehran. Iran has expressed readiness for nuclear-focused negotiations while categorically rejecting any possibility of abandoning uranium enrichment. On February 3, 2026, President Trump confirmed that talks were ongoing, even after the US military shot down an Iranian drone that approached its aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

Regional countries have expressed concern that a US strike could trigger wider conflict or long-term instability in Iran, warning that air power alone may prove insufficient to achieve strategic objectives. The US Maritime Administration has advised American-flagged ships to maintain maximum distance from Iranian waters when navigating the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting heightened security concerns in the critical waterway.

Future Threat Projections

Looking beyond the immediate crisis, a Defense Intelligence Agency report projects that Iran could develop and field up to 60 intercontinental ballistic missiles by 2035, giving Tehran the capability to potentially threaten the US homeland directly. The report, released in support of President Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense system, indicates that Iran currently has no deployed ICBMs but possesses space launch vehicles that could be adapted for military purposes.​

Iran currently maintains the largest and most diverse missile systems in the Middle East, with seven types of short-range ballistic missiles and eight medium-range variants. Defense analysts note that the majority of these systems have nuclear-capable variants, though Iran’s nuclear program has faced significant setbacks following US and Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.